‘NEWS’ Category

Investment Advisory

An investment advisory is a person who offers you guidance on your financial activities. American financial law prescribes that every investment advis...

 

An investment advisory is a person who offers you guidance on your financial activities. American financial law prescribes that every investment advisory shall be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and regulatory agencies. The fees they charges will grow with their work experience and determined by the nature of services they provide. Sometimes fixed fees are charged. However, most of the time, they would ask for an hourly fee for the time they devoted to managing your .finances. Few would ask for a payment in the form of commission by charging a certain percentage of the assets they manager for you. They may work as a freelancer or an employee in a corporation where a number of people like him work together. Their guidance on investment covers a wide range of areas such as bonds, stocks and mutual funds, ect. They could also help to manage you asset profolio.

investment advisory
Different investment advisors have different duties and undertake different responsibilities. His might serve as a financial advisor for you. He would manage you assets and guide you on how to invest, when and where base on his own professional expertise and past experiences. To do that he has to collect as much information on your financial assets as possible and make good plans on how to grow the value of your assets. He would make some suggestions for you on these matters. He is the one to turn to when you encounter some difficulties or problems and seek profession advices. You can consult him on such questions as where to put your money, which retirement plan will benefit you most and what are the risks involved. You can also get some information about the taxes incurred in your investments and get some advices on how to reduce the taxes to be paid.
To become a licensed investment advisor, he or she has to register his or her name with the state of government. There are some limits on the sum of assets value they are allowed to manage. A state adviser can manage the maximum assets of $25,000,000 and they are qualified to offer financial plans for you. But these plans do not include the regular management of stocks of their clients. In comparison, a federal adviser has no limits on the assets to be managed for his clients and they are eligible to give plans on regular management of assets.
They may also choose to work for a company which is registered in accordance with the Company Act. Besides, they have to be authorized to extend their service to more than 30 states. The requirements on the investment advisor license vary. They can help you with your budgeting, retirement planning and assets allocation with a view to make the most of its value and achieving the maximum income. Assistance will also be provided to obtain your financial objectives both in the long term and short term.

Worry about Market Decline or Stock Market Crash?

 

Responds on a Declining Market
The value of stock and bond markets always fluctuates. You might go through these vicissitudes with your investment. The following are two reasons support the idea that you should worry about your investment and three reasons explaining why you should not.
The declining trend should worry you for two reasons.
First, it is widely known in the equity market that to profit from this kind of investment, you have to sell your equities at a higher price than you paid. Quite different from real estate or other entity investment, the equity is a virtual product. The real value of equities depends on the people who buy in. So the price of the equity will be greatly affected by the confidence of the investors and hence the demand of the buyers. The asset price is created by the buyer in the equity market more or less. So the downward trend might suggest a panicky consumer behavior and your equity price would be greatly influenced.
Second, if you are going to sell your equities soon, the price is of greater consequence. The price varies with the mass psychology. A pessimistic view and the low confidence gave rise to the market decline, which is closely related to the price of your shares.

market decline
There are three reasons that you need not worry about the market decline stock market crash:
First, if what you look after is the dividends rather than the value of your shares, then the dividend income should be your focus. Investment for dividends shares some similarities with property owner who let out his or her own rooms or houses. The investment return is the rent paid every month by the tenant. The value his real estate on the market does not matter much for the property is not meant to sell. What the owner intends for is the income brought about by the rent. This is true to shares or mutual fund. If the dividend income could quite satisfy you, the property value on the market falls into a secondary position.
Secondly, for those who would hold their shares in the long term and keep buy in, the downward trend would not affect you much. What is more, those cheap shares purchased might turn out to be a great opportunity for you. From this perspective, a downward trend is not always a bad thing. Warren Buffet, the great investor, once suggested that the good values can be found in a market slump. Sometimes the prices of a property or something go down not because of the decrease its value but the reduced demand for this asset. Since the demand will bounce back in the long term, the fallen price will climb up accordingly. The fallen market price at present does not necessarily dictate a low price in the future. Let’s say four or five years? The price might be quite different from today. Investment is meant for the growth potential of the equity. For example, there are similarities between the calculation method of properties rent and that of the price of dividend-paying equities. The monthly rent is also a factor determine the real estate value. This reasoning is also true on the equity market. The price of the share will naturally soar if the rents rise or the business revenue grows in the future. So as the owner of this asset, your big return is at sight. Not only will you benefit from the price gaps but also the dividends generated during your ownership.
Third,as we know that higher risk brings about better returns. The more risk you undertake, the better you will be rewarded. Risk is inevitable in investment. What we need to do is to take advantage of information and reason in order to offset risks and be an informed risk-taker. If you are to taste the sweet fruits of investment, you must learn to structure your investment better and accommodate with the fact that risks are the inevitable by-products.
How much risk you can bear and to what degree are important factors to be taken into account in deciding you investment plans no matter for what purpose you participate in the equity market. One thing is clear that high return accompanies high risk.
The article represents personal views and is not intended to solicit different views or serve as advices for investors.

Emerging markets’ inflation: The latest import

 

Author: Roger A. Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D.     Julieann Shanahan, CFA    Joseph H. Davis, Ph.D.    Jonathan Lemco, Ph.D.

 

Rising labor costs across China, India, Brazil, and many other emerging markets are prompting concern that emerging markets’ inflation will soon place more sustained upward pressure on consumer import prices in developed markets. Our analysis concludes that the direct impact of a $1 rise in emerging markets’prices on developed markets’CPI is likely to be low, ranging from $0.04 in the United States and Canada to $0.09 in Australia. Based on these calculations, even a large and unexpected 25% appreciation in the Chinese currency would be expected to boost U.S. CPI headline inflation by less than 1 full percentage point.We conclude that rising import prices in emerging markets do not currently threaten developed markets’ price stability. Previous Vanguard research has demonstrated that inflation trends in developed countries are predominantly influenced by domestic factors. In the quarters ahead, some emerging countries risk falling into a 1970s-type high-inflation spiral, while others may tighten monetary policy too aggressively, leading to a slowdown in their economies. In Vanguard’s view, such country-specific macroeconomic uncertainty underscores the importance of investing in as broad an emerging markets’ equity vehicle as possible.

 

Rising emerging markets’ inflation

Inflation in emerging markets now exceeds 6%, a rate more than double that of developed markets (see Figure 1). Although some of the recent run-up can be attributed to a spike in food prices, there is growing concern that the acceleration in emerging markets’ inflation since 2010 marks a return toward the higher trend rates of inflation observed in emerging markets over long stretches of the 1980s and 1990s. This concern is greatest for the largest and fastestgrowing emerging markets economies of China, India, and Brazil. Indeed, more anecdotal reports have emerged of growing labor-market shortages that, if accurate, could translate into higher labor costs for the very same emerging economies that have arguably placed the most downward price pressure on imported consumer products for developed markets. Rising wage pressures in these countries come at a time when money and credit growth rates in some emerging nations are rising more quickly than their already-high economic growth rates (see Figure 2).

Should inflation in emerging markets persist, how much of a threat is it to the price stability of developed markets? In short, is emerging markets’ inflation the next developed markets’ import?

 

Emerging markets’ pass-through of price changes to developed markets

 

All else equal, the most direct and immediate transmission channel of inflation from emerging to developed markets is through import prices. Consequently, we estimated the average impact  of a 1% increase in emerging markets’ inflation (based on trade and import price data for 22 emerging economies) on developed markets’consumer inflation during 2010.

The bubble charts in Figure 3, on page 4, demonstrate that the potential effect of emerging markets’inflation diminishes markedly by the time it reaches developed markets. In the United States, for example, we assumed that the incidence of emerging markets’exporter pass-through of price changes is 42%. This number is based on a long-term upper-bound estimate for foreign exchange pass-through.

Notes on risk: All investments in mutual funds are subject to risk. There are additional risks when investing outside the United States, including the possibility that returns will be hurt by a decline in the value of foreign currencies or by unfavorable developments in a particular country or region. Stocks of companies in emerging markets are generally more risky than stocks of companies in developed countries

 

 

 

 

We then multiplied this by emerging markets’imports as a percentage of total imports to the United States. Finally, we multiplied the product by total U.S. imports as a percentage of personal consumption expenditures, in this case, 18%. Based on this methodology, every 1% increase in emerging markets’ inflation has resulted in 0.04% higher U.S. CPI inflation (1% inflation = 1% * 0.42 * 0.47 * 0.18 = 0.04%) in 2010. We repeated this exercise for Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom to arrive at an estimated transmission effect for 2010. Overall, we found that the direct impact of a $1 rise in emerging markets’ inflation on developed markets’CPI has been low over the past decade, ranging from $0.04 in the United States and Canada to $0.09 in Australia.
Similarly, in the United Kingdom, the inflation transmission has been 0.07 pounds per pound increase in emerging markets’prices.

Going forward, the transmission of emerging markets’inflation to developed markets’CPI is likely to remain low, despite the recent acceleration in emerging markets’ inflation and the growing importance of emerging markets’products in world trade. Indeed, repeating our calculations using consensus 2011 emerging markets’inflation rates resulted in similar estimates to those reported in Figure 3.

Put another way, our calculations suggest that emerging markets’ inflation would need to exceed 25% for higher import prices to boost U.S. CPI headline inflation by 1 full percentage point. For comparison, most analysts expect emerging markets’ inflation to average approximately 7% in 2011 and to perhaps recede in 2012 and beyond. As such, the direct effect of higher emerging markets’ inflation on developed market inflation rates is expected to remain low under most scenarios.

 

But what if China significantly revalues its currency?

A potential wildcard in this analysis is the compounding effect that a major revaluation in an emerging market’s currency could have on developed markets’ inflation by raising the costs of imported goods. A recent Federal Reserve research paper by Auer (2011), for instance, argues that a sharp appreciation in China’s currency (the yuan or renminbi, RMB) could spark higher U.S. inflation. By some metrics, the Chinese currency appears as much as 25% undervalued relative to its fundamentals.

If the Chinese RMB were to increase 25% in value relative to the U.S. dollar, what would be the inflationary effects for the U.S. economy? Using our previous framework, we estimate that a hypothetical and immediate Chinese currency appreciation of 25% versus the U.S. dollar would translate into a less than 1% rise in U.S. CPI, all else equal. This is consistent with what occurred during the past 17% appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar between 2005 and 2008.

Even under this extreme scenario, it would appear that emerging markets’ inflation is not an imminent threat to developed markets’ price stability. As stated earlier, Vanguard research has shown that domestic factors are the key drivers of inflation trends in developed markets (Davis and Cleborne, 2009). Also, in Vanguard’s paper Evolving U.S. Inflation Dynamics, Davis (2007) found that inflation expectations and domestic labor market conditions (two major factors in domestic market labor costs) explained the vast majority of fluctuations in core CPI inflation over a three-year period. Changes in commodity prices, in import prices, and in the value of the U.S. dollar may have short-term impacts on headline CPI inflation, but they have not had a significant affect on the trend rate of U.S. inflation over the past three decades.

 

Conclusions and investment implications

 

To reiterate, we do not see emerging markets’inflation as a looming threat to developed markets’price stability. Our analysis finds that only $0.04 to $0.09 of every $1 increase in emerging markets’inflation ultimately passes through to the prices of imported consumer products in developed markets. In many ways, this should not be surprising, since developed markets’ inflationary trends are mostly influenced by domestic factors, as previously documented.

In our view, the rise in emerging markets’inflation poses a greater risk to emerging economies themselves. Indeed, high and rising emerging markets’ inflation is arguably the most significant risk factor for emerging markets’ equity investors.

At present, certain emerging economies such as India and, to a lesser extent, China are at moderate risk of falling into a 1970s-type high-inflation spiral. Given these conditions, recent monetary policy actions in China and in select other emerging countries are encouraging.

 

News from:  vanguard.com

An important update on Japan – American Funds

 

In the aftermath of the massive earthquake and tsunami, our thoughts are with the people of Japan as they face perhaps the most challenging and uncertain period since World War II. They have endured a stunning natural disaster and now confront unprecedented problems at several nuclear power plants that could have lasting consequences for the country.

Because Japan plays such a significant role in the world’s economy, we wanted to offer some perspective on implications for investors.

Several American Funds have investments in companies that are domiciled in Japan. The majority of Japanese companies held in American Funds portfolios are export-oriented global companies that do not depend solely on the Japanese economy.

Below is a list of the funds and the percentage of assets invested in Japanese securities as of December 31, 2010. We have included the exposure of each fund’s relevant index to Japan to compare the size of our holdings against those of the index. In each case, the fund’s exposure to Japan was lower than that of the index.

Funds invested in Japanese securities as of December 31, 2010

An important update on Japan

Fund and relevant index: EuroPacific Growth Fund (MSCI All Country World ex USA Index); New World Fund (MSCI All Country World Index); New Perspective Fund and Capital World Growth and Income Fund (MSCI World Index); International Growth and Income Fund (MSCI World ex USA Index); SMALLCAP World Fund (MSCI All Country World Small Cap Index); Capital World Bond Fund (Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Index, based on market cap). Capital World Bond Fund’s investments in Japan include an additional 3.3% in other bonds exposed to the yen.

A list of all equity securities in every fund is available on each fund details page.

At this point, it is not possible to know the full impact on any company, and it’s too early to gauge the long-term economic effect on Japan. The country has had experience with major earthquakes, such as the one that struck Kobe in 1995. Japan’s economy and companies have demonstrated the ability to recover relatively quickly from such natural disasters, and in this case, the Bank of Japan has acted swiftly to buffer the economy.

American Funds investment professionals are monitoring the situation in order to assess the impact not only on Japanese companies but also on the nuclear power industry, global supply chains and the insurance and construction industries. (Regarding our staff in Tokyo, none of our associates, or members of their immediate families, were harmed in the earthquake.)

The events in Japan are shocking and traumatic, but the Japanese people have demonstrated a remarkable ability to recover from such disasters. The global economy and world’s equity markets have shown similar long-term strength.

Dividend policy change for two bond funds – American Funds

 

Beginning with April’s dividend payment, American High-Income TrustSM and The Bond Fund of AmericaSM will no longer pay a fixed monthly amount per share. Rather, both funds will pay a variable amount for all share classes.

Dividend policy change

Why we’re making this change

The new policy allows American High-Income Trust and The Bond Fund of America to pay a monthly dividend rate based on what they’re currently earning which, in turn, allows them to better reflect changes in their portfolios, the market and economic conditions.

The new policy aligns both funds with all of our other bond funds, which pay a variable dividend. (Capital World Bond Fund®, which pays quarterly dividends, does not follow a variable dividend policy.) It also aligns them with other funds in the industry that currently pay a variable dividend.

How it impacts total dividends

While the amount of income may vary slightly from one month to the next under a variable rate dividend policy, the total annual income shareholders receive will be the same amount as received under a fixed rate policy.

How we’re notifying shareholders

If you are a shareholder in either of these funds, you should have received notification about the new policy with your March dividend check and with your first-quarter statement.

If you have questions, please contact your financial adviser or call us.

Investor Confidence Index Falls Slightly from 97.3 to 97.0 in April

 

BOSTON, MA – 26 Apr 2011

State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), today released the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for April 2011.

Globally, Investor Confidence fell slightly by 0.3 points from a March revised reading of 97.3 to 97.0 in April. The confidence of North American investors declined by 3.9 points to a level of 98.4 from March’s revised reading of 102.3. In other regions, investors were more upbeat. Sentiment among Asian investors increased 2.7 points to 99.2 from the March number of 96.5. In Europe, investor confidence bounced off its recent lows, rising 6.3 points from the March level of 66.9 to settle at 73.2.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index was developed by Harvard University professor Kenneth Froot, and Paul O’Connell of State Street Associates. It measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors.

“We see some generalized evidence that institutional investors have shifted into a neutral gear with the Global, North American and Asian Confidence Indices all hovering in the neighborhood of 100,” said Froot. “Recent signals suggesting that US growth expectations for the first quarter may need to be trimmed, coupled with ongoing concerns about the resolution of fiscal deficits in both the US and Europe, have dampened enthusiasm for further equity risk allocations.”

“Looking regionally, we see that inflows into emerging markets have tapered off to a degree from the robust levels observed over recent months,” added O’Connell. “Though flows into emerging markets, particularly Emerging Asia, remain positive, they are no longer sufficient to outweigh the modest but persistent selling of developed markets equities that we have observed since last summer.”

About State Street Global Markets
State Street Global Markets provides specialized investment research and trading in foreign exchange, equities, fixed income and derivatives. Its goal is to enhance and preserve portfolio values for asset managers and asset owners. From its unique position at the crossroads of the global markets, it creates and unlocks value for its clients with original flow-based research, innovative portfolio strategies, trade process optimization, and global connectivity across multiple asset classes and markets.

State Street Global Markets’ research team of leading academic and industry experts is committed to continually advancing the science, including theory and application of its proprietary investor behavior research and innovative portfolio & risk management technologies to help its clients challenge conventional thinking, shape ideas, make more informed investment decisions and deliver measurable results.

About the State Street Investor Confidence Index®
The index is released globally at 10 a.m. Eastern time in Boston on the last Tuesday of each month.

About State Street Corporation
State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT) is one of the world’s leading providers of financial services to institutional investors, including investment servicing, investment management and investment research and trading. With $22.6 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $2.1 trillion* in assets under management at March 31, 2011, State Street operates in 26 countries and more than 100 geographic markets worldwide.

* This AUM includes the assets of the SPDR Gold Trust (approx. $56 billion as of March 31, 2011), for which State Street Global Markets, LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors serves as the marketing agent.

China’s economy cools, limiting room for tighter policy

 

By Kevin Yao and Aileen Wang

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s inflation eased in April to 5.3 percent and other data, including industrial output and loans, suggested slower activity in the world’s second-biggest economy and less room for further aggressive moves to tighten monetary policy.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected but lower than a 32-month high in March of 5.4 percent, underlining expectations that price pressures were peaking and would start to ease in the second half of 2011.

The annual pace of industrial output and retail sales eased more than expected, backing the view that the heady 10-percent plus pace of economic growth last year is calming. Annual food price increases, the main driver of overall inflation, pulled back to 11.2 percent in April from 11.7 percent in March.

“Price pressures are still uncomfortably strong, but there are some signs in today’s data that policy measures put in place over the last six months or so are having an impact,” said Brian Jackson, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.

Jackson said inflation remained high enough to warrant two more increases by the central bank in interest rates and further yuan appreciation against the dollar.

But several analysts said other data released on Wednesday, including figures that showed a slowdown in the pace of money supply and bank loans outstanding, suggested that the central bank could be less aggressive with monetary tightening in the months ahead.

“The April economic indicators make it less likely that the central bank will raise required reserve ratios or interest rates. I believe the central bank will, at most, raise reserve requirements once in the coming two months,” said Shao Yu, an economist with Hongyuan Securities in Shanghai.

The central bank has raised interest rates four times since last October and banks’ reserve requirements seven times, which has meant big banks have a record 20.5 percent in deposits tied up. Those funds could otherwise become loans.

Markets showed little reaction to the data.

China’s industrial output in April rose 13.4 percent from a year earlier, easing from a pace of 14.8 percent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Output had been forecast in a Reuters poll to rise by 14.7 percent.

Retail sales rose 17.1 percent, lower than 17.6 percent forecast in a Reuters poll and weakening from 17.4 percent in March.

Chinese banks extended 739.6 billion yuan ($113.9 billion) in new yuan loans in April, more than market forecasts for 700 billion yuan, People’s Bank of China figures showed.

M2 money supply growth of 15.3 percent was much lower than forecasts for 16.5 percent and also marked the lowest pace in 29 months.

Outstanding yuan loans at the end of April were 17.5 percent higher than a year earlier, also the weakest pace in 29 months, central bank data showed.

Though far too soon for Beijing to declare victory in its battle against inflation, the stabilization of prices suggested that tighter monetary policy was beginning to produce initial results, analysts said.

The government has a target of 4 percent annual inflation, but some analysts said it could be tough to achieve that goal given increasing labor costs and rising commodity and fuel prices.

(Additional reporting by Zhou Xin, Langi Chiang; writing by Neil Fullick)